In a wide-ranging paper by the Centre for Public Policy for Regions (CPPR) based on the latest available North Sea data (actuals and forecast), Professors John McLaren, Jo Armstrong and Ken Gibb (ed.) show that oil related tax revenues would fail to fill the gap left from the loss of Barnett-related UK funding in an independent Scotland.

However, the paper also illustrates that such an outcome could be overturned, opening out the possibility that a small amount could be available to invest in a Savings Fund or to reduce debt levels, should budget savings be made in the costs to the Scottish taxpayer of public services currently reserved to the UK government, such as Defence.

The full paper can be found here.